Sigma Freud

Monday: At his department review, for which I’m a guest, El Jefe presents a slide showing reliability of a new product. If you just walked into the room, you’d focus on the graph’s forbidding label: “5 times more prone to fiery explosion.” By listening to a half-hour, highly jargon-laced explanation on why the results are meaningless, you’d likely agree the slide should have never been presented.

Tuesday: El Jefe presents his numbers to the executive review board. With temerity, he says we’ll make our 4Q ship date. When questioned, he concedes his two seniormost direct reports (and me) express doubt about the estimate’s veracity. “But that’s okay.”

My Boss, Commissioner Reynolds: “Captain Sarcastic, is this how you see it?”
Captain Sarcastic: “No.”
El Jefe: “That’s what my numbers say.”
Captain Sarcastic: “Your numbers are dubious. Intuitively, I’d say we’re late based on our taking two extra months to deliver a prototype our customers can evaluate.”
El Jefe: “The numbers say we can deliver in October.”

Speaking of numbers, El Jefe is fond of throwing them around as if he knew what he’s talking about. His Yatta Yatta estimates are quoted in “sigmas.” Statistically, a zero-sigma estimate is one you’d expect to be accurate half the time. Heads it takes longer to build a widge, tails it doesn’t. A two-sigma estimate indicates a 95% confidence. 19 times out of 20, you’ll make it. He appears to be off by two. His zero sigma estimate is more like a minus-two sigma. You’d have better luck reaching into a barrel of cockroaches, hoping to pull out a Rolex.

Wednesday: At the regional meeting, attended by everyone — PhDs, marketing, sales, custodial engineers, and office Ninja — El Jefe shows he doesn’t grok the concept of tailoring a presentation to the audience. Whereas the other directors’ presentations last two minutes, his was twenty. And it was recycled verbatim from the department presentation. And it included The Graph of Meaningless Angst. The people who know what it is are pissed off it was presented. The people who don’t wonder when the meeting will @#%!$ end.

Thursday: El Jefe’s two direct reports cornered him about the model he’s using for scheduling. I receive an Office Invite:

I just finished updating our best guess at numbers that had not been updated since last month and we are in serious trouble.

The meeting is Friday. My money is on a delivery date of “Marchtober.”